Complete Steel Collection
Eurofer's report - slightly more optimistic market outlook
3. 7. 2009
The European steel lobby Eurofer has announced a slightly more optimistic note in its
latest monthly market outlook.
“We finally see some light at the end of the tunnel”, said director general Gordon Moffat in the group’s June report.
Recent surveys and leading indicators suggest that the economic downturn could bottom out over the coming months. However, any recovery is expected to be fragile and still surrounded by uncertainties and downward risks,” the report said.
Even the report is a little more hopeful than last month, the forecasts remain no good.
More information from the Eurofer report:
Output of EU steel using sectors fell by almost 25% year-on-year in Q1with a similar drop estimated for Q2. The outlook is for an 18% decline in 2009 and low-level stabilisation in 2010.
Combined with continued destocking, this has reduced apparent steel consumption by 43% year-on-year in H1 with little change expected until Q4. “
From Q4 the market is expected to see a low-level equilibrium as the negative effect of the stock cycle starts to ease,” the report says.
From Q4 the market is expected to see a low-level equilibrium as the negative effect of the stock cycle starts to ease,” the report says.
On average, apparent steel consumption will fall by almost 33% in 2009 compared to 2008.
However, in 2010, the stock cycle reversing to slightly positive will result in apparent steel consumption growing by almost 14%.
Exports were down 23% year-on-year in Q1. “Trade actions have resulted in markets effectively being closed for some products and others becoming increasingly commercially unattractive,” said Eurofer.
Exports in 2009 are projected to fall by 19% year-on-year to the level of 2002, while they should rise by just over 4% next year. Meanwhile, imports are down by 35% in Q1 and a decrease of 30% is expected this year followed by a 15-16% rise in 2010.
